A super Tuesday for Pennsylvania

Better odds the state's late primary will matter

• Ed Mahon
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  Ed Mahon comes to Spotlight PA from PA Post, where he covered state politics and policy, produced radio stories that were broadcast on public media stations throughout the state and on NPR’s national newscasts, and co-wrote a weekday newsletter. Prior to joining PA Post, Ed worked for six years as an investigative and political reporter for the York Daily Record, part of the USA Today Network. His reporting on failures in Pennsylvania’s system for protecting domestic abuse victims was a finalist in the national 2018 Livingston Awards for Young Journalists in the local reporting category. He was also part of a team whose coverage of the criminal justice system, including the aggressive use of civil asset forfeiture by York County prosecutors, received the 2018 G. Richard Dew Award for Journalistic Service from the Pennsylvania NewsMedia Association. Before joining the York Daily Record, Ed covered K-12 education at the Centre Daily Times in State College and worked as a stringer for suburban sections of The Philadelphia Inquirer. He grew up in Delaware County, Pennsylvania.

 AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

Democratic presidential candidates, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., left, and former Vice President Joe Biden, right, participate in a Democratic presidential primary debate at the Gaillard Center, Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in Charleston, S.C., co-hosted by CBS News and the Congressional Black Caucus Institute. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

Democratic presidential candidates, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., left, and former Vice President Joe Biden, right, participate in a Democratic presidential primary debate at the Gaillard Center, Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in Charleston, S.C., co-hosted by CBS News and the Congressional Black Caucus Institute. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Super Tuesday’s biggest winner wasn’t necessarily Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders. There’s a case to be made that the entire state of Pennsylvania walked away with the biggest prize, and that’s the fact that Keystone voters now have a chance to play an important role in picking the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.

In past presidential election years, holding the primary in late April made Pennsylvania largely irrelevant for both Democrats and Republicans. One relatively recent exception was 2008, when Hillary Clinton was able to keep her candidacy alive after defeating Barack Obama by 200,000 votes.

Christopher Borick, a political analyst for Muhlenberg College, told PennLive that Tuesday’s results increase the odds that the Keystone State will have a meaningful role in the Democratic primary. “If it’s a Biden-Sanders race, and it’s going to be protracted, that puts us on the map for a change,” Borick said.

Franklin and Marshall University’s Terry Madonna agrees. “I don’t think you can rule out at all, that we [Pennsylvania] could be in the thick of it,” he told The Daily Item. “There is no way to know for sure. We have the progressive wing of the party versus the center-left wing, and as you look at the primaries coming up before Pennsylvania, there certainly are divisions.”

At least one Pa. expert thinks it’s still unlikely that our primary will be decisive. Robert Speel, associate professor of political science at Penn State Behrend, told The Daily Item that Biden could be the presumed nominee by the end of March.

There are still more than a dozen states that will hold their primaries before Pa.’s, including Michigan next week, Florida on March 17, and Georgia on March 24. Should Sanders or Biden dominate those contests, Pennsylvania could matter less.

• Wealthy suburban Virginia = wealthy suburban Pennsylvania: That’s the theory that Jonathan Tamari explores in this piece for The Philadelphia Inquirer. Those suburbs propelled Biden to victory in Virginia and the Philly suburbs are expected to be really important in a match-up against Trump.

• Bloomberg out: The campaign for former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg planned to open a campaign office in Harrisburg on Thursday evening. I planned to cover it. But now I have the night free, as the billionaire dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Biden. Bloomberg’s campaign has already spent a lot of money in the state, and he was poised to break $20 million in radio and TV advertising, The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jonathan Lai reported last week.

• Endorsements in southwestern Pennsylvania: Ahead of the primary, Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald and 11 other leaders in southwestern Pennsylvania endorsed Biden, Pittsburgh Action News 4 reports. “We know we need to focus relentlessly on creating good jobs, growing our economy, investing in our students and our workers,” Fitzgerald said in a statement.

• What do the polls say? In January,  Franklin & Marshall College had Biden up over Sanders with 22 percent of Democrats surveyed favoring him. A February survey from the UW–Madison Elections Research Center gave Sanders the edge among Pennsylvania Democrats (25 percent to Biden’s 20 percent).

• What’s next for Warren and her supporters?: U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who didn’t finish in the top-two in any state Tuesday, has the backing of Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney and Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, but some other progressive have thrown their support behind Sanders, Andrew Seidman reported for The Philadelphia Inquirer.

• Former Gov. Tom Corbett said a Biden win in the Democratic primaries doesn’t mean Democrats will sweep everything in Pennsylvania. “In the past years, everybody could go in and push the Republican or Democratic lever. The state changed that this year. You are going to have to go in and vote individually. There has always been a drop-off,” he said on KDKA Pittsburgh.

• Trump in Scranton: The president is scheduled to make his first 2020 trip to Pennsylvania this evening for a town-hall style event hosted by Fox News. “Trump’s appearance in Biden’s hometown of Scranton … will serve as a reminder of just how important Pennsylvania is in November,” The Inquirer‘s Andrew Seidman writes. “And it may underscore an uncomfortable truth for his would-be rivals: It’s not always easy being a Democrat in Northeastern Pennsylvania these days.

Best of the rest

Jacqueline Larma / The Associated Press

State Police deploy before the Eagles team parade and celebration Thursday Feb. 8, 2018 in center city Philadelphia. (Jacqueline Larma / The Associated Press)

• Tattoo expansion: Pennsylvania state troopers and cadets are now allowed to have tattoos on their biceps and forearms. The change in policy reflects an “evolving public perception regarding tattoos,” Colonel Robert Evanchick, commissioner of the Pennsylvania State Police, said in a statement. Troopers with tattoos in those places will be required to wear a long-sleeved uniform shirt while on duty. In July, the York Daily Record talked with municipal police officers about what their tattoos mean to them.

• Voting by drop box: When it comes time to vote in the primary, Erie County residents will have a new option. The county will have a drop box in front of its courthouse for people using the new mail-in ballots, GoErie.com reports. But the election board chairman estimates that additional boxes would be expensive: about $2,000 each, because they would require video monitoring, daily pickup for processing and a verifiable chain of custody.

• Privilege at town halls: Jake Blumgart, a reporter for WHYY’s PlanPhilly, took an interesting angle as he covers the ongoing dispute over a planned supervised injection site in Philadelphia. Do public meetings give power to the most privileged people?  It’s an important topic, and it also reminded me of a less important one: This video highlighting town hall meetings from the sitcom “Parks and Recreation.” “What I hear when I’m being yelled at is people caring loudly at me,” Leslie Knope, the fictional civil servant, says.

• Coronavirus criticism: U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., says the president isn’t taking the outbreak seriously enough, WESA reports. In the House, 60 Democrats are making a similar criticism, including several from Pennsylvania. The U.S. House, by the way, voted Wednesday to approve more than $8 billion for vaccine research and other medical responses to the virus.

• All clear?: The potential coronavirus infection in Philadelphia that was mentioned in Wednesday’s Context turned out to be something else. But The Inquirer says there’s another patient now being treated who could be infected with the virus.

• March 20 journalism education opportunity: Join PA Post and partners in Pittsburgh for a one-day conference on Pennsylvania’s Right to Know and Sunshine laws. Details here.

• March 21 investigative reporting workshop: Investigative Reporters & Editors is bringing its Watchdog Workshop series to Pittsburgh. Registration includes a FREE IRE membership. Cost is $55 for professionals and $25 for students. Speakers include Chris Baxter, Spotlight PA; AmyJo Brown, Bridge Pittsburgh; Kellie Burkett, WPXI; Paula Knudsen, LNP Media Group; Rich Lord, PublicSource; Denise Malan, IRE & NICAR; Julian Sher, investigative journalist; Halle Stockton, PublicSource and more.  Optional hands-on spreadsheet training will take place on Sunday, March 22. This workshop will teach you how to use Excel for deadline and beat reporting on budgets, salaries, election data and more. No prior data experience necessary. The workshop and Sunday training will take place at Point Park University. Find additional information here.

• Correction: Tuesday’s Context said H1N1 originated in an Asian country. That was incorrect. A different virus — H5N1, or avian flu — emerged in Asia in the late 1990s. H1N1, or swine flu, was first detected in North America during the 2009 pandemic. We regret the error.