People in cars wait to enter a COVID-19 temporary testing site at Abington Hospital in Abington, Pa., Wednesday, March 18, 2020. For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms. For some it can cause more severe illness.
Matt Rourke / AP Photo
Matt Rourke / AP Photo
People in cars wait to enter a COVID-19 temporary testing site at Abington Hospital in Abington, Pa., Wednesday, March 18, 2020. For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms. For some it can cause more severe illness.
Matt Rourke / AP Photo
People in cars wait to enter a COVID-19 temporary testing site at Abington Hospital in Abington, Pa., Wednesday, March 18, 2020. For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms. For some it can cause more severe illness. (Matt Rourke / AP Photo)
Just how many coronavirus cases in Pennsylvania will require hospitalization? This is the big, unanswerable question on the minds of public health officials and medical professionals. If too many get sick all at once and require hospital care, the state’s health system will be overwhelmed.
But if “social distancing” is embraced and enforced, the case load is more likely to be manageable, with hospitals able to care for every serious case.
WITF’s Brett Sholtis, working with our partners at Spotlight PA, looked into how the experts are trying to predict what the epidemic will amount to here. “State Health Secretary Rachel Levine said her department is working with universities to answer those questions. But as of Friday, the state’s modeling was not finished, and though officials have promised to share ‘projections’ publicly, there’s no timeframe on when that might happen,” he writes.
Brett’s story points to modeling efforts at Pitt and UPenn. Penn Medicine’s Mike Draugelis described the challenges of trying to predict the epidemic’s course: “The big variable is how many people are carrying the virus without showing symptoms, Draugelis said. Random testing can get at that number. Draugelis said knowing the rate of ‘asymptomatic carriers’ is essential to understanding how many people overall are infected with the virus. It’s also important for projecting how many more people are going to get sick.”
Philadelphia Magazine interviewed one of the UPenn experts who is quoted in Brett’s story. As for when the peak caseload will happen in Philly, he said: “If you look at the pattern, we’re just at the beginning of what could be a very rapid increase here in Philadelphia. As I model it today it looks like May 18th, but it depends on the rate of spread and how much impact people will have by changing their behavior. I would call it middle of May.”
Gov. Tom Wolf was interviewed by the York Daily Record about the state’s coronavirus response. He echoed concerns about the potential for the health system to be overwhelmed: “The biggest challenge in Pennsylvania is the same as other places – we have too few facilities to care for the number of critically ill if we have a surge in cases. And because this is happening so many places, we’re all competing for the same stockpile of materials. So, we’re becoming innovative. We’re retooling what we have within our borders to create what we need.”
Today’s Inquirer looks at how Philadelphia hospitals are preparing for the expected surge, which could begin in less than two weeks. “The math suggests that in two weeks, April 9, Penn’s six hospitals, including the flagship in West Philadelphia, could have at least 1,472 coronavirus patients. And the peak of the crisis, [P.J. Brennan, chief medical officer of the massive University of Pennsylvania Health System] said, is projected to be in late May or June.”
In Pittsburgh, UPMC experts told TribLive.com “they believe community spread of the coronavirus might be less intense locally than in other parts of the country.” ICU chief Dr. Rachel Sackrowitz said, “We are prepared for a surge we hope never arrives, but we are prepared for the worst.” Telemedicine is also a big part of UPMC’s effort to reduce the spread of coronavirus at hospitals and clinics, WESA reports.
Notable stories:
The Inquirer: Treating coronavirus takes serious toll on health-care workers’ mental health, study finds
WPXI: Washington Health System doing voluntary, mandatory layoffs due to decrease in revenue
LehighValleyLive.com: Deal is reached to keep Easton Hospital open for at least a month
Kaiser Health News: The Nation’s 5,000 Outpatient Surgery Centers Could Help With The COVID-19 Overflow
Jon Elswick / AP Photo
American flags blow in wind around the Washington Monument with the U.S. Capitol in the background at sunrise on Monday, Jan. 20, 2020, in Washington. The impeachment trial of President Donald Trump will resume in the U.S. Senate on Jan. 21. (AP Photo)
The $2 trillion federal coronavirus stimulus program is officially underway. What does it mean for Pennsylvania?
More than one Pennsylvania member of Congress has said our state stands to get $5 billion from the legislation. But that money only takes into account what will flow to governments to help offset coronavirus costs.
Pennsylvania will likely reap billions more in the form of direct payments to individuals, support for mass transit agencies, and interest-free loans to businesses. NPR.org has a very thorough explainer on what’s in the legislation. (And here’s another visualization of how the money will flow.)
This write-up from the Hospital and Healthsystem Association of Pennsylvania notes “the legislation offers avenues to financial resources, including a $100 billion emergency fund grant program to reimburse eligible health care providers for health care-related expenses or lost revenues attributable to COVID-19. Additionally, it creates a new Medicare add-on payment to be applied when a hospital treats a patient with COVID-19.”
Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto isn’t happy that the bill discriminates against small- and mid-size cities. The legislation signed yesterday reserves financial assistance for cities with populations of 500,000 or higher.. “I am very disappointed. We have put together a very pragmatic approach,” he told the Pittsburgh City Paper. “But Washington decided to only concentrate on a handful of cities, instead of the cities that are the regional gathering points for large parts of the country.”
The New York Times breaks down what the package has in store for individual Americans.
Coronavirus must-reads:
Harvard Business Review: Lessons from Italy’s Response to Coronavirus
Slate: I’m a Priest in Northern Italy. Our World Is Unimaginable Right Now
FiveThirtyEight: What Should The Government Spend To Save A Life?
PublicSource: COVID-19 changes the landscape of drug treatment and challenges providers and patients
The Washington Post: Can Deborah Birx Save Us?
