Which Pa. counties will enter the green phase of Wolf’s reopening plan next? Here are the strongest candidates

Perry County also appears primed for a move to green.

• By Greg Pickel/PennLive

Pa. Gov. Tom Wolf is expected to announce which counties will be next to move into the green phase of his coronavirus reopening plan on Friday.

Who could make the cut?

As of 12:01 a.m. today, Friday, June 5, every county has exited the state’s complete stay at home order, otherwise known as the red phase. That means 33 counties are in the yellow phase, where aggressive mitigation must be practiced, while 34 are in the green, or the least restrictive phase of Wolf’s plan. Under it, all businesses can open again as long as they follow CDC and Pa. Department of Health guidelines.

Note, as well, that in the yellow phase, bars and restaurants can offer outdoor dining as long as social distancing and other practices like it are followed. Dine-in service, however, is only allowed in the green phase.

With all of that out of the way, Wolf and his administration have signaled that any county moving to the green must perform well in the yellow phase for 14 days against risk metrics related to the potential for community spread of COVID-19, how hospitals are doing in terms of capacity and ICU care availability, population density and age, plus how reopening will affect travel in and out of an area.

The 14-day timeline leaves the following yellow-phase counties as candidates, and remember, if a county is announced as moving to green this Friday, it probably won’t actually do so until next Friday, June 12:

• Adams
• Beaver
• Carbon
• Columbia
• Cumberland
• Erie
• Juniata
• Mifflin
• Northumberland
• Perry
• Susquehanna
• Union
• Wyoming
• Wayne
• York

Of those, it would be a surprise if Erie, Northumberland, and Union were not designated to advance as they’ve been in the yellow phase for nearly a month now and score well on the Carnegie Mellon University COVID-19 county reopening scorecard that has been used by the state, in conjunction with other models, to make these decisions.

The model uses color-coded circles to assess where a county is in each metric; green is good, white is neutral, and orange and red flag areas of concern.

Closer to the Harrisburg, Perry County also appears primed for a move to green, as it is only flagged by the ICU capacity risk. Cumberland, meanwhile, has no green dots and concerns tied to three of the six categories, which likely will force residents there to experience another week in the yellow zone. Adams County is in a similar boat, as it has orange markers in three risk categories but no red yet no green. York’s metrics indicate it might be facing another week in the yellow phase, too.

Elsewhere around the state, Columbia, Juniata, and Wyoming counties look to be places that should be strongly considered for the green phase, and then the next tier of hopefuls but not probables would include Susquehanna and Wayne. Beaver and Carbon counties are toss-ups leaning toward staying in yellow, based on the scorecard, which you can view for yourself with information updated through June 3 by clicking here.

All that said, a few factors make any sort of prognostication in this area a challenge. First, it’s unclear how the metrics are weighted, but it’s believed that some are more worrisome than others. Additionally, we don’t know many specifics about the other models that are being used to inform these decisions.

Right or wrong, we’ll know by the end of the day which counties get to fully open up again next. Be sure to check back to PennLive throughout the day for the latest.

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